Earthquake Study Shakes up California

For many Southern Californians, small earthquakes are nothing to get shaken up about. But according to a new study, a major earthquake is likely to rock Southern California in the next 30 years.

A survey conducted by the Southern California Earthquake Center predicts that an earthquake of at least 6.7 magnitude has a 99.7 percent chance to to hit California in the next 30 years, and an earthquake of 7.5 magnitude or higher has a 46 percent chance of hitting California in the next 30 years.

The fault with the greatest probability of generating an earthquake is the San Andreas fault, which runs roughly 800 miles through California. The last major earthquake the San Andreas fault generated was a 6.0 earthquake in September 2004 known as the Parkfield earthquake. 

The northern section of the fault was also responsible for the historic 1906 earthquake in San Fransisco that killed about 3,000 people.

"What the study indicated is that the Southern San Andreas Fault is the most dangerous fault in California," said Thomas Jordan, director of the SCEC and a professor of earth sciences at USC, where the center is located. 

The Facts

- California has a 99.7% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years

- The likelihood of a magnitude 7.5 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years is 46%

- The probability of an earthquake magnitude 6.7 or larger hitting the Los Angeles area in the next 30 years is 67% and 63% for the San Francisco Bay area

- The fault with the highest possibility of generating an earthquake is the San Andreas Fault